The whole world will only be safe from COVID-19 after ensuring that all populations are adequately vaccinated.
In countries where no significant proportion of the population is vaccinated, there is a huge risk of sustained community spread of COVID-19 over a prolonged period.
The longer the period of sustained community spread, the more likely that the virus will mutate. And this means it could be a breeding ground for the new coronavirus – SARS-CoV-2 – to mutate into more aggressive variants. The mutated variants from the unvaccinated population will be able to infect even those in the vaccinated population.
Vaccines may not work against mutated variants because of changes that happen in the genetic code of the virus.
A vaccine is meant to create an immune response through antibodies which are designed to recognise the virus’ protein structure which has been altered. Think of it like an enemy altering their military uniform, becoming less recognisable to the opposing army.
They can also evade immunity induced by previous infection for similar reasons – immunity was designed towards the structure of that original virus. The altered virus wouldn’t be easily recognisable by antibodies from the previous infection. Therefore, the mutated strains could infect those already vaccinated, causing re-infection.
This means that everyone would continue to be vulnerable. Even those who live in areas where the population has already been vaccinated would not be totally protected against the virus if the virus mutated elsewhere.
With the interconnectedness of countries and regions around the world, no single population lives in total seclusion. No particular population is safe unless all populations are safe.
How can governments mitigate these risks?
It won’t be realistic for countries that have vaccinated their populations to close their borders against countries that haven’t vaccinated. Unless vaccinated countries completely shut their borders from the rest of the world, there would always be some interaction between their citizens and citizens from unvaccinated countries.
What approach should governments be taking?
Governments must work together to scale up the production and global supply of the vaccines within the shortest time possible. It’s crucial that as much of the world’s population can access the vaccine as soon as possible. This requires abolishing “vaccine nationalism” and hoarding.
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